Justin Blackmon is better than he's getting credit for

Just wanted to put my 2 cents in on Justin Blackmon.  I've been hearing more and more chatter about how he isn't worth a top ten pick, or that Michael Floyd is better or on par with him.  The main arguments I hear are about how he's only 6-1, not a burner, his statistics are inflated because of the offense he was in, and that his ceiling is an Anquan Boldin - level player.

First off, Anquan Boldin is a 3 time pro-bowler who was the fastest player in NFL history to 500 catches.  In his first 6 years in the NFL his numbers look like this:

2003	ARI	16	101	1,377	13.6	71	8	62	2	2
2004	ARI	10	56	623	11.1	31	1	32	1	1
2005	ARI	14	102	1,402	13.7	54	7	68	2	1
2006	ARI	16	83	1,203	14.5	64	4	53	0	0
2007	ARI	12	71	853	12.0	44	9	43	2	1
2008	ARI	12	89	1,038	11.7	79	11	56	3	3

That is extremely high production.  Charles Rodgers went 2 that year, and Andre Johnson went 3.  Bryant Johnson was the 17th pick in the 1st as well.  Dwayne Robertson went 4 that year, Johnathan Sullivan went 6, and Byron Leftwich went 7.

The argument is that Boldin's numbers are inflated because he played opposite Larry Fitzgerald and in a pass happy offense, which may be true, but it's hard to argue with that kind of production.  The point is that if Justin Blackmon's ceiling is an Anquan Boldin, it's still not too bad.

I don't buy that and think Blackmon has a higher ceiling and can be a true #1 receiver.  Boldin ran a 4.72 forty yard dash at the combine.  Blackmon ran a 4.47 - 4.51 at his pro day, which to me already differentiates the two.  Below are three scouting reports on three different players:

Player 1 -

6'1
207 lbs
4.46 40 yard dash
40 in. Vertical

Positives … Has a strong, athletic frame with long arms and legs, good overall muscle development, thin waist, wide shoulders and room for additional growth … Long strider with above average quickness … Has the second gear needed to run by and get on top of the defender … Can set up the defenders with his fakes, stutter-step and ability to vary his speed … Quick to tuck the ball away after the catch and does a nice job adjusting to the ball in flight … His size and initial burst lets him beat the press coverage and dictate the route's progression … His acceleration off the line allows him to gain yardage and run past defenders … Runs quick vertical routes and shows the cutting ability upfield to separate … Has good field vision, making proper body adjustments to the thrown ball … Does a nice job of getting open and settling in the zone … Shows good hands and looks natural extending for the ball outside the frame … Very effective at playing the ball over his shoulders, especially on deep routes … Combative going for the ball in traffic and will not hesitate to make the catch with a defender all over him … Has the body control to get into position and has the burst to make the big play once he finds the crease in the zone … Times his leaps well and shows a good feel for markers and boundaries.

Negatives … Does not separate on the hard angle cuts well, as he's more of a soft angle receiver … Has a little bit of a poor stance and when he stands too tall, his release limits him in this area (exposes his chest too much releasing) causing him to struggle some vs. the jam, but he closes the cushion quickly … Despite his quickness, he does gather himself to take off, but shows good explosion and is a determined runner after the catch …

Because he plays at such a high pad level, he struggles on short area routes as he fails to properly drop his weight and gain separation … Is such a marginal blocker that he is generally removed from the field during running plays … It is not because of a lack of strength that he does not block well, but rather a lack of desire … More of a straight-line runner, as he does not run crisp routes, drop his hips and separate out of his cuts … More of a soft angle type that will round his cuts and shuffle his feet … Lacks elusiveness after the catch because of hip stiffness and marginal change of direction agility (needs to have a crease to make the big play).

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Player 2

6'1
215 lbs
4.48 40 yard dash
35 in. Vertical

From PFW Draft Preview

Positives - Plays big with a sense of urgency and will run out of the grasp of tacklers and outcompete defensive backs for the ball in the air.  Exceptional hands-catcher - can pluck it. Runs hard with the ball in his hand and will deliver a quick stiff arm.  Consistently moves the sticks on third downs and in critical situations despite facing extra attention. Sets up defensive backs, selling his routes hard and can separate with strength and savvy (nods, stems, and double moves). Very good body control, concentration in traffic and downfield ball skills. Possesses instinctive receiving skills that cannot be taught. Can make very acrobatic, one-handed snags and excellent in-air adjustments to off-target throws - has a wide catching radius. Tracks the deep ball with ease and is very effective on fade routes. Works the middle and can play multiple positions. Intense game-day competitor. Aggressive blocker.
Negatives - Lacks great size and is not physically intimidating. Average initial quickness off the line. Hip tightness is very apparent in movement. Top-end speed is average at best and will struggle to separate vertically against quick corners. Can be tracked from behind. Not an overly creative or elusive playmaker. Not powerful in the hips to explode through contact. Average leaping ability. Inconsistent effort as a blocker. Did not run a full route tree in a spread offense with a history of inflating the production of its receivers. Can be distracted by some of the trappings of the game and must prove committed in the weight room. Bench pressed 225 pounds only 14 times at the Combine.

Player 3

6'0
212 lbs
4.51 40 yard dash
36 in. vertical

From PWF Draft Preview

Positives - Very good functional playing speed.  Terrific concentration and body control. Extremely strong-handed with natural receiving skills. Plays with great field awareness and instinctively finds open areas in coverage. Crisp route runner. Attacks the ball in the air and takes it away from defenders in a crowd. Great athlete. Can make spectacular catches. Physically and mentally tough. Produces under pressure and plays big on big stages. Extremely competitive and wants the ball in the clutch. Has started three years in a pro-style offense. Tough and durable. Will catch across the middle. Record-breaking production in three years. Very confident.
Negatives - Is not a burner and could struggle to separate. Many of his catches are contested. Can be demonstrative when the ball is not thrown his way. A bit square hipped and boxy in his movement and not overly elusive after the catch


Player 1 is Roddy White, Player 2 is Justin Blackmon, and Player 3 is Hakeem Nicks.  I think Blackmon compares favorably to those two players and should not be pigeon-holed by an Anquan Boldin comparison.  I think his upside is on par with those guys and can be a bonafide #1 wr in the NFL.

Food for thought-

When White was drafted in 2005, Braylon Edwards went 3, Troy Williamson went 7, and Mike Williams went 10.

When Nicks was drafted in 2009, Darrius Heyward-Bey went 7, and Michael Crabtree went 10.

My point is not that the Browns should or shouldn't draft Justin Blackmon.  I personally think that a combination of Blackmon and Doug Martin would give the Browns better potential value than a combination of Richardson and Floyd/Stephen Hill/Reuban Randle.  I'd do backflips if they took Richardson and traded up to get Kendall Wright (I believe Wright will be gone before 22).  The point is that if I'm the Browns, Rams or Jaguars I would not be afraid to draft Blackmon in the top 10.  There comes a point in the evaluation process where people start focusing on what a player isn't rather than what he is, and that's what I see happening with Blackmon.

I'll state my feelings on Michael Floyd later but I don't think it's close and I'm shocked when I hear people like Greg Cosell say that they think Floyd is better than Blackmon.