Wednesday, April 18, 2012

The Case Against a QB

It would be pretty easy to make a case for the Browns to take a QB in the first 2 rounds of the draft.  Colt McCoy by all accounts did not look like a "franchise qb" last season.  The argument is that he didn't have anything (weapons) around him, which I don't buy.  Quarterbacks make other players better, not the other way around.  (That's not to say he was running with the '99 Rams, and the RB and WR spots should be upgraded)  His accuracy is over-rated, especially intermediate to deep, and he won't hang in the pocket and make the tough throws that NFL qb's have to make.  It appears that he's too quick to check down, unless Pat Shurmur's offense is predicated on 3-5 yard passes, which it may be (see 2010 Rams).

However he didn't go through a full off-season in the new offense, and should improve if the Browns draft some talent at running back and wide-receiver.  And as hard as this is for me to say, the Browns should give him another shot in 2012.



Let's be realistic, as the schedule was just released yesterday.  This team is not going to the playoffs.  There are gaping holes right now at RB, WR, RT, CB, S, and possibly LB.  To me the best strategy would be to draft a running back, (Richardson), a wideout with some speed and YAC ability, (Wright), and a right tackle, (Massie).  To add three starters with the first three picks is almost imperative for the Browns.  If you put those pieces around McCoy, and give him the chance to run through a full off-season in the west-coast offense, you'll know exactly what he is.  Plus if Mike Holmgren is this QB guru that people peg him to be, couldn't he work with McCoy and make him a better player?  You would think, but it's hard for him to get much done in between cashing huge checks for doing next to nothing and appearing on Seattle radio stations.



However many (most?) mock drafts have the Browns taking either Ryan Tannehill at 4, or Brandon Weeden at either 22 or 37.  I wouldn't touch Tannehill at 4, and I don't think the Browns would either.  I might give him consideration with the 22nd pick.  Weeden is intriguing, but his age has to be of some concern.  To me it's not that you'll get only 6-8 years out of him, but more was he a great QB because he's a man playing against college kids?  A 28 year old quarterback should be dominant against 18-22 year olds.  I like that he shows a strong arm, but he's coming from a spread offense and was throwing to receivers that were pretty much running open, and he'll have much tighter windows in the pros.  Is he ready to step right in and play?  He'd better be, because the first interception McCoy throws Browns fans will be calling for him.  And the most important question to me, is he good enough that if the Browns go 3-13 or 4-12, that they'll pass on a Matt Barkley or Tyler Wilson (or Logan Thomas or Tyler Bray if they come out) because they have Brandon Weeden?

If the answer to that question is no, then there's no need to take Weeden in the first 2 rounds.  For a team with as many holes as the Browns, filling them with top shelf talent should be the primary objective of this draft.  It's sad to think that we have to look ahead to the 2013 draft already, but it should be in the back of Heckerts mind.  They whiffed big time on RG3, are they going to do it again by taking a second tier QB this year and then pass on an elite one next year?

If Weeden drops to the late 2nd (trade up) or 3rd, maybe he's worth a look, because at that point you're only investing a 3rd (and possibly an additional 4th) to get him.  Who else is going to take the guy?  There aren't a lot of QB needy teams in this draft and one of them is going to take Tannehill.  Then the question becomes, do they take a Kirk Cousins in the third and hope to develop him?  I like Cousins but I don't think I'd take him until the 4th at the earliest.  If it were me I'd take a guy like BJ Coleman or Darron Thomas in the 5th or 6th and try and develop him.  I like Russell Wilson but damn he's short.  But he may be worth a look late.

This draft should be about building the team for the future.  The general consensus is that you build around a quarterback, but there are many ways to skin a cat.  The Browns missed on the chance to get RG3, and now they need to roll with McCoy.  If he fails and stinks again next year (with an upgraded cast), then you go get your guy.  Because if they fill out their team the right way, there's a chance that the Browns could only be a Barkley away from respectability.

2 comments:

  1. Generally agree with your assessment.

    The Browns OL was awful last year. That's no fault of Joe Thomas, but there is a dire need of some help here. The other teams in the division (mainly Pitt & the hated Ravens) are built around 1. a strong running attack, 2. possession-type "go to" receivers, 3. a durable QB and 4. a stout defense. Seems like a pretty successful model.

    You can't really expect to have 1 and 2 without a decent OL. Oh, and without OL protection the QB is running for his life. (See: 2011) With two firsts, and a high second round pick, the Browns should be able to address the WR, RB, and RT positions. They can and probably should draft a QB later. Luck and RG3 look to be the type of player a franchise can be built around but after those two there's a pretty huge talent drop off.

    If he has a decent season, I could see Barkley as a top 5 pick. But if the Browns improve as they should, they could end up with the 10-15th choice. Oh, well. It's like Lucy keeps pulling away the football.

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  2. Yeah I agree, the line played better as the season went on except for RT. I think Richardson will open up the field a little bit and help in terms of both pass protection and an explosive outlet/check down receiver. But I'm on record with what I think they should do, and if it's not Colt then they go all in and see if they can trade up for a Barkley or Wilson. There should be some good QB's in next year's class, maybe not a sure thing like a Luck or Griffin, but guys with more physical tools than McCoy. We'll see though...

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